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Research | Time:Jul 22 2016 1:51PM
How far can Indian cotton price go?
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Indian spinning capacity increased modestly to about 4,800 spindles by now. The profit of Indian C32S for weaving to China is compressed constantly. As Indian cotton price surges sharply, cotton price spread over Indian and world as well as cotton yarn price spread between Indian and other major areas deviate from the average gravely. So, the international competitiveness of Indian cotton and cotton yarn declines significantly. Given current situation, price of Indian cotton is expected to keep firm in short run, likely to exceed the highest level at 48,500rupee/candy in 2012/13 crop year, but cotton price may decline after new cotton emerged.

Content (Total 11 pages)
Main content
I. Indian cotton prices climb up significantly
II. Supply shortage is the major reason for hiking price
1. Cotton supply and demand
2. Cotton yarn supply and demand

III. Profits of yarn mills sharply worsen
1. Profit trends of Indian yarn mills
2. Profit of major imported cotton yarns in China

IV. Indian cotton and cotton yarn lost global competitiveness
1. Indian cotton –Cotlook A spread
2. Price of Indian and Vietnamese cotton yarn
3. Price of Indian and Chinese cotton yarn
4. Market share change of Indian cotton yarn in China

V. Summary and suggestion
1. Summary
2. Suggestion

Chart 1. Price of Indian S-6 since Sep 2012
Chart 2. Yarn capacity in India since 2005
Chart 3. Operating rate of Indian cotton yarn mills since May 2014
Chart 4. Production of cotton yarn in India and proportion since Apr 2013
Chart 5. Cotton yarn stocks in Indian spinners since Apr 2013
Chart 6. Spot profit of Indian C32S for weaving shipped to China
Chart 7. Price of Cotlook A index and Indian cotton since 2012
Chart 8. Price of Indian and Vietnamese carded C32S for air-jet, CIF major China ports
Chart 9. Price of Indian and Chinese C32S since Nov 2012
Chart 10. Market share of Indian, Pakistani and Vietnamese cotton yarn in China since 2012

Table 1. Indian cotton supply-demand balance
Table 2. Cost of cotton different cotton yarns (after cleared, at major China ports)

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