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Research | Time:Jul 6 2016 2:58PM
Return of Chinese cotton on narrowing price spread with international cotton?
 
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Foreword
Since the cotton reserve without volume limitation started from 2011/12 season, domestic cotton price has kept high and downstream spinners were also impacted, leading to high spinning cost of domestic cotton yarn, but imported cotton yarn was apparently competitive. Imported cotton yarn snatched some market share of domestic cotton yarn, resulting in stunted sales of domestic cotton yarn and depressed demand for cotton, forming a vicious circle. However, price of domestic cotton dipped apparently after cotton policy changed in 2014 and was consolidating at low level recently. Price of international cotton has remained low since 2012, and price spread of international and domestic cotton kept narrowing, which is supposed to favor domestic cotton market and textile mills.

Content (Total 11 pages)
Part I. Background review
1. China cotton output
2. Volumes of China’s cotton reserve and auction
3. Relation between state cotton reserve/auction and cotton price
4. Allocation of cotton quota
Part II. Status quo
1. China cotton import and consumption
2. Prices & spread between domestic and international cotton
3. China cotton and cotton yarn imports
4. Transactions of state reserved cotton in 2016
Part III. Market outlook
1. Domestic price
2. International cotton price
3. Price spread
Summary

Chart
Chart 1. China cotton planting area and output
Chart 2. China cotton reserving volumes and output in 2011/12-2013/14
Chart 3. Relation between state cotton reserve/auction and cotton price
Chart 4. China cotton imports and consumption
Chart 5. Price spreads of Chinese and international cotton
Chart 6. Price gap between Chinese and international cotton
Chart 7. China cotton and cotton yarn imports in 2009-2016
Chart 8. Price trends of Chinese and imported cotton yarn
Chart 9. Trading proportion of reserved cotton from May3, 2016
Chart 10. Chinese cotton 3128 price and trading prices of reserved cotton

Figure
Figure 1. Trading volume and base price of cotton auction
Figure 2. Allocation of cotton quota

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