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Research | Time:Jun 17 2016 1:47PM
PET bottle chip profit improving during supply/demand rebalance
 
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Foreword: China PET bottle chip industry had been through a while of stagnation after capacity boom, and it is gradually reviving with the fittest survive rule.

China’s PET bottle chip export hit record high in 2014, while in the next year many enterprises suffered regional trade barriers.

But the cash flow of PET bottle chip plants has improved year by year since 2014, particularly in 2016, it has stayed quite well for long period of time. Why could PET bottle chip plants gain profit?

Content(Total 10 pages)
I. Market rules give industrial ration and recovery
Rule 1. Too fast new capacity release would cause sharp profit loss or enlarging deficits, and enterprises would start self-rescue
Rule 2. Deficits accelerate industrial elimination
Rule 3.De-stocking ensures healthy development

II. Ramp up exports to boost demand

III. Complete industrial chain and arbitrage between futures and spot markets

1. Lengthen industrial chain, lower feedstock costs
2. future-spot arbitrage to lock profits

IV. Market outlook

Chart:
Chart 1. PET bottle chip capacity release and cash flow
Chart 2. PET bottle chip month-end inventory
Chart 3. Exports of PET bottle chip in 2009-2015
Chart 4. PET bottle chip export cash flow in 2010-2016
Chart 5. China PET bottle chip export share in 2015-2016
Chart 6. Correlation between spot PX & PET bottle chip export volume
Chart 7. Correlation between PET bottle chip export prices, PX & PTA
Chart 8. Correlation between PET bottle chip RMB price & spot PTA/PTA futures
Chart 9. PET bottle chip large-order purchasing point & processing margin

Figure:
Figure 1. Capacity shutdown, production transfer or relocate
Figure 2. China PET bottle chip plant feedstock coincide condition


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