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Insight | Time:Feb 10 2018 9:49AM
January cotton yarn imports may inch up year on year yet down month on month
 
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1. Ordering time and price gap change of mainstream imported cotton yarn

Jan arrivals of Indian cotton yarn were mainly ordered in end-Dec and end-Nov, and price gap between forward and spot Indian cotton yarn in China narrowed during that period. Given price disparity, arrivals of Indian cotton yarn may drop in Jan compared with Dec. 


Jan arrivals of Vietnamese cotton yarn were mainly procured in early-Jan and early-Dec. Price gap between forward and spot goods expanded compared with last cycle. Thus, arrivals of Vietnamese cotton yarn in Dec may slightly increase on the month. 


Jan arrivals of Pakistani cotton yarn were mainly ordered in early-Dec and early-Nov. Price disparity between forward siro-spun 10S and spot goods in China obviously narrowed. Based on price gap, arrivals of Pakistani cotton yarn in Jan may fall on the month.

2. Profit change of mainstream imported cotton yarn


Profit of Jan arrivals of Indian and Vietnamese cotton yarn showed slightly better compared with Dec arrivals, and the margins of Pakistani cotton yarn still declined. Imports of Indian and Vietnamese cotton yarn in Jan may rise while those of Pakistani cotton yarn may reduce. To note that the good profits were to much extent credited to RMB appreciation, while market players were not confident of a sustained hike. 


3. Inventory change at major China ports

Inventory of spot imported cotton yarn showed low in Jan. Trading of most varieties went subdued with only some tolerable. Inventory in ports also sustained low. Thus the arrived cargos was not much on the whole. 

4.Traders’ reflection
Of all traders surveyed, 37% reflected that Jan arrivals of imported cotton yarn may rise month on month, 46% thought a slightly decrease while 12% a flat trend. Most players thought that cotton yarn imports in Jan may dip on the month and sustain so in Feb, yet rebound in March.

5. Summary and outlook

According to survey made by CCFGroup and combined with profit and price gap change: imports of cotton yarn are likely to slip by around 5.99% on the month to 178.8kt in Jan, and imports of cotton yarn containing more than 85% of cotton is expected to be around 169.7kt.

Imports of cotton yarn from India and Pakistan is supposed to fall on the month in Jan, and that from Vietnam may rise.

Note: The survey (combined with telephone and WECHAT) made by CCFGroup involves around 40 companies, containing around 55% of total cotton yarn imports. The sampling survey is incomplete and the result is only for reference.
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