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Insight | Time:Jan 25 2018 4:23PM
PTA driven up by PX and healthy supply/demand
 
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PTA futures and spot prices were both dragged up by PX recently. PX firmness came from higher oil prices as well as bullish market fundamentals.

PX market focused on Mar-Apr cargoes at present as GS and S-oil plans to shut for turnaround and triggered speculative demand. However, Petro Rabigh’s 1.34 million mt/yr may supply market since March, which brought some worries.


As to PTA market, besides supports from PX sector, the supply and demand also contributed to the uptrend. In Jan, PTA production was predicted to 3.24 million tons with polyester production at 3.64 million tons so PTA supply and demand was more or less balanced in Jan but since polyester plants will shut for holiday, PTA inventory may increase by 350-400 KT in Feb thus PTA market seems losing strength.

However, even if PTA inventory increase by 350-400 KT in Feb and by 250 KT in Mar, the total increment of the first quarter was still tolerable since PTA inventory by the end of the first quarter may reach around 1.1 million, far lower than that in 2017. In the end of Mar, 2017, PTA inventory was close to 2 million tons.

Therefore, PTA market fundamentals were healthy so if other factors cooperates, PTA still has upward momentum in the short term.
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