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Insight | Time:Jan 11 2018 2:46PM
December cotton yarn imports may reduce 6.24% m-o-m to 181.8kt
 
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1. Ordering time and price gap change of mainstream imported cotton yarn

Dec arrivals of Indian cotton yarn were mainly ordered in end-Oct and end-Nov, and price gap between forward and spot Indian cotton yarn in China slightly expanded during that period. Given price disparity, arrivals of Indian cotton yarn may inch up in Dec compared with Nov.


Dec arrivals of Vietnamese cotton yarn were mainly procured in early-Nov and early-Dec. Price gap between forward and spot goods expanded compared with last cycle. Thus, arrivals of Vietnamese cotton yarn in Dec may slightly increase on the month.


Dec arrivals of Pakistani cotton yarn were mainly ordered in early-Oct and early-Nov. Price disparity between forward siro-spun 10S and spot goods in China obviously narrowed. Based on price gap, arrivals of Pakistani cotton yarn in Dec may fall slightly on the month.

2. Profit change of mainstream imported cotton yarn


Profit of Dec arrivals of Indian cotton yarn showed slightly better compared with Nov arrivals, and the margins of Pakistani and Vietnamese cotton yarn still declined. Imports of Indian cotton yarn in Dec may rise slightly while those of Pakistani and Vietnamese cotton yarn may reduce.


3. Inventory change at major China ports

Inventory of spot imported cotton yarn declined in Dec. Cotton grey fabric sales turned better in some areas with some varieties even out of supply. Arrivals of some varieties of imported cotton yarn may slip slightly, yet the whole picture is to be watched. 

4.Traders’ reflection
Of all traders surveyed, 32% reflected that Dec arrivals of imported cotton yarn may rise month on month, 41% thought a slightly decrease while 27% a flat trend. Most players thought that cotton yarn imports in Dec may dip slightly on the month, yet may not be very low or high.

5. Summary and outlook

According to survey made by CCFGroup and combined with profit and price gap change: imports of cotton yarn are likely to slip by around 6.24% on the month to 181.8kt in Dec, and imports of cotton yarn containing more than 85% of cotton is expected to be around 172.7kt.

Imports of cotton yarn from India is supposed to rise on the month in Dec, and that from Vietnam may show flat while that from Pakistan fall.

Note: The survey (combined with telephone and WECHAT) made by CCFGroup involves around 40 companies, containing around 55% of total cotton yarn imports. The sampling survey is incomplete and the result is only for reference.
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