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Insight | Time:Dec 6 2017 9:52AM
November cotton yarn imports may reduce 6.37% m-o-m to 158.8kt
 
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1. Ordering time and price gap change of mainstream imported cotton yarn

Nov arrivals of Indian cotton yarn were mainly ordered in end-Sep and end-Oct, and price gap between forward and spot Indian cotton yarn in China narrowed during that period. Given price disparity, arrivals of Indian cotton yarn may drop in Nov compared with Oct.


Nov arrivals of Vietnamese cotton yarn were mainly procured in early-Oct and early-Nov. Price gap between forward and spot goods narrowed compared with last cycle. Thus, arrivals of Vietnamese cotton yarn in Nov may decrease on the month.


Nov arrivals of Pakistani cotton yarn were mainly ordered in early-Sep and early-Oct. Price disparity between forward siro-spun 10S and spot goods in China slightly widened. Based on price gap, arrivals of Pakistani cotton yarn in Nov may rise slightly on the month.

2. Profit change of mainstream imported cotton yarn



Profit of Nov arrivals of Indian and Vietnamese cotton yarn slipped compared with Oct arrivals, and the margins of Pakistani cotton yarn also declined although profit was higher than last period. Imports of Pakistani cotton yarn in Nov may rise slightly while those of Indian and Vietnamese cotton yarn may reduce in Nov.



3. Inventory change at major China ports

Inventory of spot imported cotton yarn remained high in Nov and demand for imported cotton yarn was modest, but demand for some goods improved slightly in end-Nov. Arrivals of imported cotton yarn may slip slightly but may be not small.

4.Traders’ reflection
26% of traders under survey reflected that Nov arrivals of imported cotton yarn may rise compared with Oct, 32% of traders thought Nov arrivals may slightly decrease on the month and 42% of traders thought Nov imports of cotton yarn may be flat with Oct. Most players under survey reflected that cotton yarn imports may dip slightly in Dec on the month and did not expected arrivals in Dec to be very low or high.

5. Summary and outlook

According to survey made by CCFGroup and combined with profit and price gap change: imports of cotton yarn are likely to slip by around 6.37% on the month to 158.8kt in Nov, and imports of cotton yarn containing more than 85% of cotton is expected to be around 152.5kt.

Imports of cotton yarn from Pakistan are supposed to rise on the month in Nov, and those of Vietnamese and Indian cotton yarn may reduce slightly m-o-m. Imports of cotton yarn to Guangdong are likely to rise on the month, while those to Shandong, Zhejiang and Jiangsu may reduce slightly m-o-m.

Note: The survey (combined with telephone and WECHAT) made by CCFGroup involves around 40 companies, containing around 55% of total cotton yarn imports. The sampling survey is incomplete and the result is only for reference.
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