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Insight | Time:Nov 7 2017 4:25PM
October cotton yarn imports may slip 3.23% m-o-m to 162kt
 
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1. Ordering time and price gap change of mainstream imported cotton yarn

Oct arrivals of Indian cotton yarn were mainly ordered in end-Aug and end-Sep, and price gap between forward and spot Indian cotton yarn in China narrowed during that period but the average gap apparently enlarged compared with Sep arrivals. Given price disparity, arrivals of Indian cotton yarn may rise in Oct compared with Sep.


Oct arrivals of Vietnamese cotton yarn were mainly procured in early-Sep and early-Oct. Price gap between forward and spot goods narrowed compared with last cycle. Thus, arrivals of Vietnamese cotton yarn in Oct may decrease on the month.


Oct arrivals of Pakistani cotton yarn were mainly ordered in early-Aug and early-Sep. Price disparity between forward siro-spun 10S and spot goods in China obviously widened. Based on price gap, arrivals of Pakistani cotton yarn in Oct may rise on the month.

2. Profit change of mainstream imported cotton yarn



Profit of Oct arrivals of Indian, Vietnamese and Pakistani cotton yarn increased compared with Sep arrivals, but the margins of Indian and Vietnamese cotton yarn declined, which impacted buyers’ mindset. Imports of Pakistani cotton yarn in Oct may rise slightly while those of Indian and Vietnamese cotton yarn may not increase or decrease.



3. Inventory change at major China ports

Stocks of imported cotton yarn remained high in Oct, but downstream demand was modest. Some weavers saw better orders, while overall demand turned worse in Oct compared with Sep. Arrivals of imported cotton yarn were not low too.

4.Traders’ reflection
46% of traders under survey reflected that Oct arrivals of imported cotton yarn may rise compared with Sep, 15% of traders thought Oct arrivals may slightly decrease on the month and 39% of traders thought Oct imports of cotton yarn may be flat with Sep. Most players under survey reflected that cotton yarn imports may dip slightly in Nov on the month but some did not expected arrivals in Nov to be very low. Generally, Nov arrivals of imported cotton yarn may be smaller than those in Sep-Oct.

5. Summary and outlook

According to survey made by CCFGroup and combined with profit and price gap change: arrivals of imported cotton yarn in Oct may rise slightly, but the National Day holiday affected customs data. Comprehensively thinking, imports of cotton yarn are still likely to slip by around 3.23% on the month to 162kt in Oct, and imports of cotton yarn containing more than 85% of cotton is expected to be around 153.9kt.

Imports of cotton yarn from India and Pakistan are supposed to rise on the month in Oct, and those of Vietnamese cotton yarn may reduce slightly m-o-m. Imports of cotton yarn to Guangdong and Shandong are likely to rise on the month, while those to Zhejiang and Jiangsu may reduce slightly m-o-m.

Note: The survey (combined with telephone and WECHAT) made by CCFGroup involves around 40 companies, containing around 55% of total cotton yarn imports. The sampling survey is incomplete and the result is only for reference.


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