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Insight | Time:Nov 3 2017 8:35AM
BDO export and spandex import analysis in Jan-Sep, 2017
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I. BDO export analysis
Exports of BDO surged in the first three quarters of 2017. According to customs statistics, exports of other diols (polyurethanes, in primary forms HS Code: 29053990) grew by 434% y-o-y to 57.5kt in Jan-Sep, 2017, with proportion of BDO at 78.6%. Exports of BDO hiked by 1,084% on the year to around 45kt in Jan-Sep, 2017.

South Korea was the biggest export market for BDO in Jan-Sep, 2017, sharing around 58%, followed by Germany and Belgium, with the total proportion of these two nations at 20%. Exports of BDO to India, Vietnam, Turkey, Taiwan China and Italy were small, with obviously changing volume every month.

Exports of BDO increased by 5,107mt or 212% in Sep compared with Aug, and exports to South Korea, Belgium, Germany and Netherland grew apparently.

Nation Aug-17 Sep-17 Change (kg)
Export volume (kg) Export volume (kg) Average price ($/kg)
South Korea 1,377,080 2,548,337 1.547 1,171,257
Belgium   1,727,940 1.517 1,727,940
Germany 272,620 1,366,420 1.499 1,093,800
Netherland   582,480 1.511 582,480
Italy 37,200 379,260 1.532 342,060
Turkey 244,000 273,600 1.395 29,600
Spain   250,800 1.5 250,800
France   228,000 1.51 228,000
U.S. 16,000 82,000 1.639 66,000
Taiwan China 110,000 66,000 1.602 -44,000
India 16,000 16,000 1.651 0
HK 298,200 / / -298,200
Australia 2,000 / / -2,000
Argentina 24,800 / / -24,800
Poland 16,000 / / -16,000
Total 2,413,900 7,520,837 1.521 5,106,937

Export unit price of BDO in Sep was at $1.521/kg, up by around $0.018 compared with Aug, and export unit price of BDO was in uptrend in Jan-Sep, 2017, gradually rising in the third quarter, but the RMB price of BDO in China gradually slipped in Q3.

Export companies of BDO in China were intensive, which were mainly large-sized plants. In Jan-Sep, proportion of Xinjiang Markor and Changlian Chemicals was at 51% and 39% respectively.

Exports of BDO in most large plants were still unstable. Price of BDO inched down after Q3 in China, but resources were capped, especially in quality suppliers. Thus, exports of BDO are unlikely to soar in later period.

II. Spandex import analysis
Imports of spandex declined by around 8.2% or 1,374mt y-o-y to 15.4kt in the first three quarters of 2017, and Vietnam, Singapore and South Korea remained major import origins. Import unit price of spandex averaged at $7.09/kg in Jan-Sep, 2017, up by $0.074 compared with the same period of last year.

Vietnam occupied around 38.2% in Jan-Sep, 2017, far higher than other origins and keeping the biggest supplier, but import volume of spandex from Vietnam declined by 28.55% on the year. Imports of spandex from Singapore, South Korea and Japan grew by 37%, 17.6% and 9.3% respectively y-o-y.

Supply of spandex from Hyosung Vietnam to China was stable after Hyosung Vietnam started operation, and the quality was largely steady. However, after the first phase of Hyosung Quzhou started operation in Apr 2017, imports of spandex from Vietnam shrank.

Import of spandex focused on quality resources in China, and the import unit price was high, which was mainly from Hyosung, Invista and Asahi Kasei.

Global spandex capacity is expected to grow by around 13% y-o-y to 1,060kt by the end of 2017 after new units starting production, which is mainly contributed to the growth in Chinese mainland. Imports of spandex have been stable since 2014 in China, mainly around 20-22kt, but imports of spandex slipped apparently in Jan-Sep, 2017, which may reduce by more than 10% throughout 2017.
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