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Insight | Time:Aug 9 2017 3:26PM
Correction on PTA supply and demand in Aug
 
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PTA inventory was previously estimated to cumulate in August but it turns out to be incorrect since Hengli may shut 2# for turnaround and Hanbang/BP Zhuhai shut 700kta and 1.1 million mt/yr respectively.

Company nameplate capacity (KTA) Location  
Yizheng CF 650 Jiangsu 8.20-8.25
Hengli 2# 2200 Dalian 8.10-8.23
BP 1100 Zhuhai 8.7-8.21
Honggang 1500 Lianyungang shut for two weeks since Sep 10, may shut earlier in H2, Aug
Hanbang 700 Jiangyin shut on Aug 6
Luoyang PC 325 Luoyang running at 60%


Therefore, Aug PTA production may be around 3 million tons (2.96 million tons if Honggang shuts ahead of schedule). Polyester run rate was around 89% at present and may lower to 87% in the middle of Aug. Assume the average run rate at 88%, polyester production may be about 3.48 million tons, consuming about 3 million tons of PTA. But Aug imports may be relatively notable. Calculated with export volume and consumption in the non-polyester field, PTA inventory may decrease by 50-100 KT in Aug.



PTA supply and demand may not sustain healthy in the future as polyester operating rate is expected to dip while those PTA units shut before may restart soon. But inventory pressure in Aug-Sep shall be tolerable. Good-quality cargos in warehouse were limited. With some PTA units shut, suppliers purchased prompt cargos and some polyester plants need to replenish stocks so PTA supply may remain tight for a while.
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