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Monthly Report | TimeJul 13 2018 8:53AM
USDA: July cotton supply and demand estimate
 
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The U.S. 2018/19 cotton projections show lower production, exports, and stocks compared with last month. The 1.0-million-bale decrease in the crop projection is due to higher expected abandonment based on current conditions. Beginning stocks are 200,000 bales lower due to an increase in 2017/18 exports. 2018/19 exports are reduced 500,000 bales based on lower supplies and increased foreign competition. With no change in domestic consumption, 2018/19 ending stocks are projected at 4.0 million bales, down 700,000 bales from the June estimate and unchanged from the revised 2017/18 level. The midpoint of the projected range of the marketing-year-average price is raised 5 cents from last month, to 75 cents per pound.

Historical revisions to China¨s consumption back to 2014/15 account for most of a 3.3-million-bale decline in 2018/19 world beginning stocks. World 2018/19 consumption is 1.6 million bales higher than in June, as the revisions to China¨s consumption estimates carry through into the 2018/19 projection year with a 1.0-million-bale increase. Consumption forecasts are also higher for Bangladesh, Pakistan, Brazil, and Vietnam. World production is projected 290,000 bales lower than in June, as reduced U.S. and Australian production more than offsets increases for Brazil, India, and Mexico. World trade is projected 165,000 bales higher this month as lower U.S. exports are more than offset by increases by Brazil and China. Ending stocks are 5.2 million bales lower than in June, with the largest declines in China (4.6 million) and the United States. India¨s and Brazil¨s ending stocks are forecast higher.

2018/19 Proj. Beginning Stocks Production Imports Domestic Use Exports Loss  /2  Ending Stocks
World Jun 88.21 120.4 41.06 125.35 41.07 0.22 83.02
Jul 84.96 120.11 41.23 126.95 41.24 0.27 77.84
United States Jun 4.2 19.5 0.01 3.4 15.5 0.11 4.7
Jul 4 18.5 0.01 3.4 15 0.11 4
Total Foreign Jun 84.01 100.9 41.05 121.95 25.57 0.11 78.32
Jul 80.96 101.61 41.23 123.55 26.24 0.16 73.84
  Major Exporters 4/ Jun 30.7 55.28 2.17 34.27 21.71 0.02 32.15
Jul 31.2 55.85 2.17 34.42 22.28 0.02 32.5
    Central Asia 5/ Jun 2.73 6.5 3/ 3.72 2.58 0 2.94
Jul 2.83 6.47 3/ 3.72 2.58 0 3.01
    Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ Jun 2.65 5.28 3/ 0.14 4.74 0 3.05
Jul 2.65 5.28 3/ 0.14 4.76 0 3.02
    S. Hemis 7/ Jun 12.6 14.46 0.22 4.54 9.85 0.01 12.89
Jul 12.85 14.86 0.22 4.69 10.35 0.01 12.89
      Australia Jun 3.16 3.8 3/ 0.04 4.4 0 2.52
Jul 3.06 3.7 3/ 0.04 4.4 0 2.32
      Brazil Jun 8.28 9 0.08 3.45 4.9 0 9
Jul 8.63 9.5 0.08 3.6 5.4 0 9.2
    India Jun 12.48 28.5 1.5 25.2 4.25 0 13.03
Jul 12.63 28.7 1.5 25.2 4.3 0 13.33
  Major Importers 8/ Jun 51.38 42.6 36.42 83.65 2.64 0.09 44.02
Jul 47.83 42.75 36.6 85.1 2.72 0.14 39.22
    Mexico Jun 0.8 1.6 0.93 1.85 0.55 0.03 0.9
Jul 0.75 1.75 0.93 1.9 0.55 0.03 0.95
    China Jun 41.17 26.5 7 41.5 0.05 0 33.12
Jul 37.69 26.5 7 42.5 0.15 0 28.54
    European Union 9/ Jun 0.38 1.56 0.71 0.74 1.48 0 0.42
Jul 0.25 1.56 0.71 0.74 1.46 0.05 0.27
    Turkey Jun 2.03 4.3 3.6 7.4 0.35 0 2.18
Jul 2.03 4.3 3.6 7.4 0.35 0 2.18
    Pakistan Jun 2.78 8.5 2.2 10.5 0.2 0.03 2.76
Jul 2.88 8.5 2.3 10.7 0.2 0.03 2.76
    Indonesia Jun 0.62 3/ 3.5 3.5 0.01 0 0.62
Jul 0.62 3/ 3.5 3.5 0.01 0 0.62
    Thailand Jun 0.18 3/ 1.08 1.05 0 0.03 0.18
Jul 0.18 3/ 1.08 1.05 0 0.03 0.18
    Bangladesh Jun 1.86 0.14 7.9 7.8 0 0.01 2.08
Jul 1.86 0.14 8 8 0 0.01 1.98
    Vietnam Jun 1.19 3/ 7.7 7.5 0 0 1.39
Jul 1.19 3/ 7.7 7.5 0 0 1.39

1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors.    2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Lesotho, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.

unit: Million 480-Pound Bales

source: USDA
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