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Monthly Report | TimeJun 13 2018 10:15AM
USDA: June cotton supply and demand estimate
 
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The most significant revision to this month¨s U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates is a 500,000-bale increase in 2017/18 exports, to 16.0 million bales, due to above-average late-season shipments. U.S. ending stocks are now forecast at 4.2 million bales in 2017/18, and 4.7 million bales in 2018/19, for a stocks-to-use ratio of 25 percent. The projected range of the marketing-year-average farm price is raised 5 cents at each end to 60-80 cents per pound.

The 2018/19 world projections include lower production for China, Pakistan, and Australia offset in part for higher production for Brazil. World production is nearly 800,000 bales lower this month, while 2018/19 consumption is reduced only 85,000 bales, as a 225,000-bale reduction for South Korea is largely offset by increases for Uzbekistan and Vietnam. World beginning stocks for 2018/19 are unchanged from a month earlier, but ending stocks are 725,000 bales lower. At 83.0 million bales, 2018/19 world ending stocks are projected 5.2 million bales lower than a year earlier, but stocks outside of China are expected to rise for the third consecutive year.

2018/19 Proj. Beginning Stocks Production Imports Domestic Use Exports Loss  /2  Ending Stocks
World May 88.21 121.19 41.12 125.44 41.12 0.22 83.75
Jun 88.21 120.4 41.06 125.35 41.07 0.22 83.02
United States May 4.7 19.5 0.01 3.4 15.5 0.11 5.2
Jun 4.2 19.5 0.01 3.4 15.5 0.11 4.7
Total Foreign May 83.51 101.69 41.12 122.04 25.62 0.11 78.55
Jun 84.01 100.9 41.05 121.95 25.57 0.11 78.32
  Major Exporters 4/ May 30.5 55.24 2.14 34.2 21.69 0.02 31.97
Jun 30.7 55.28 2.17 34.27 21.71 0.02 32.15
    Central Asia 5/ May 2.77 6.52 3/ 3.66 2.57 0 3.06
Jun 2.73 6.5 3/ 3.72 2.58 0 2.94
    Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ May 2.57 5.21 3/ 0.14 4.73 0 2.91
Jun 2.65 5.28 3/ 0.14 4.74 0 3.05
    S. Hemis 7/ May 12.3 14.46 0.22 4.54 9.85 0.01 12.59
Jun 12.6 14.46 0.22 4.54 9.85 0.01 12.89
      Australia May 3.06 4 3/ 0.04 4.5 0 2.52
Jun 3.16 3.8 3/ 0.04 4.4 0 2.52
      Brazil May 8.08 8.8 0.08 3.45 4.8 0 8.7
Jun 8.28 9 0.08 3.45 4.9 0 9
    India May 12.63 28.5 1.5 25.2 4.25 0 13.18
Jun 12.48 28.5 1.5 25.2 4.25 0 13.03
  Major Importers 8/ May 51.08 43.4 36.52 83.78 2.69 0.09 44.45
Jun 51.38 42.6 36.42 83.65 2.64 0.09 44.02
    Mexico May 0.8 1.6 0.9 1.85 0.55 0.03 0.88
Jun 0.8 1.6 0.93 1.85 0.55 0.03 0.9
    China May 40.97 27 7 41.5 0.05 0 33.42
Jun 41.17 26.5 7 41.5 0.05 0 33.12
    European Union 9/ May 0.38 1.56 0.71 0.74 1.48 0 0.42
Jun 0.38 1.56 0.71 0.74 1.48 0 0.42
    Turkey May 1.98 4.3 3.6 7.4 0.35 0 2.13
Jun 2.03 4.3 3.6 7.4 0.35 0 2.18
    Pakistan May 2.78 8.8 2.1 10.5 0.25 0.03 2.91
Jun 2.78 8.5 2.2 10.5 0.2 0.03 2.76
    Indonesia May 0.62 3/ 3.5 3.5 0.01 0 0.62
Jun 0.62 3/ 3.5 3.5 0.01 0 0.62
    Thailand May 0.18 3/ 1.08 1.05 0 0.03 0.18
Jun 0.18 3/ 1.08 1.05 0 0.03 0.18
    Bangladesh May 1.88 0.14 7.9 7.8 0 0.01 2.11
Jun 1.86 0.14 7.9 7.8 0 0.01 2.08
    Vietnam May 1.09 3/ 7.7 7.4 0 0 1.39
Jun 1.19 3/ 7.7 7.5 0 0 1.39

1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors.    2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Lesotho, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.

unit: Million 480-Pound Bales

source: USDA
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